More or Less?
As nature columnist for the Journal, I receive a steady stream of e-mails from readers with interesting observations. The great majority of these communications can be grouped into one of two categories: (1) “I’ve seen so many of [creature X] this year. They seem to be everywhere. Why?” or (2) “Where have all the [creature Y] gone this year? I haven’t seen one in weeks.”
What these questions have in common is…they are very difficult to answer! What I try to explain is that the observations of a casual observer – even my own – are subject to a great many variables. In any day, week, month, or year we may be more or less attentive to a particular critter or natural phenomenon than at another time. Short-term weather cycles or the type of activity animals engage in (such as nesting, feeding, resting) may account for them being more or less evident during a particular period. Presence or absence may even be very localized. This seemed to be the case recently when one reader in Salisbury told me he hadn’t seen any robins in weeks. Funny, I thought I’d been seeing them with great frequency in Sharon! Could there be a reason why they’re not hanging out in a Salisbury yard? Perhaps, but it’s impossible to say.
The point is this: It’s one thing – human nature, I suppose – to have the impression of relative abundance or paucity (and I don’t mean to discourage observations, or e-mails). It’s another thing, however, to translate these into actual population trends, as we are often tempted to do. For one thing, human memory is notoriously unreliable. More important, scientists spend many years developing methodologies for surveying species, and only through this slow, steady accumulation of data do we know, for example, that robins are doing quite well, thank you, but that many other species of songbirds, such as the lovely wood thrush (a cousin to the robin), have experienced serious declines in their populations over the past half-century.
Again, such declines may not be obvious to us. I’m still graced by the song of the wood thrush in my backyard and other local woodlots. But they are no less real – and this is where our focus should be: on understanding and supporting efforts to mitigate the causes for these real population declines.

